Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
america boost corporate growth job labor means move output picking serious slow wait whatever
The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.
adding board financial governors initially markets monetary players policy terms
They're adding to the intellectual firepower of the board of governors in terms of regulatory and financial markets issues, but initially they won't be important players in the monetary policy front.
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There's definitely going to be nervousness around the event and a kind of inertia. My wife has already asked me not to come into work that day.
believe chronic economists employment finally hope improvement month overall past reason relative stage tendency three
At every stage in the past three years, employment has disappointed relative to overall activity. It's a chronic issue, and there's been a tendency for economists to hope this will finally be the month when improvement occurs. But I have no reason to believe it will.
arguing fed growth inflation rising speakers string
The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
cost economists economy faster housing income indicator market mortgage picks possibly predict quickly ratio slowly typical
The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.
clearly recovery
The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.
disaster forgotten lessons markets natural prior
The markets have forgotten two lessons from prior natural disasters.
ahead bit data fed given holding looking markets meeting rather reacting sort toward uncertain verdict waiting
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.
adjustment leak market slow
The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop.
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You want to get your house in place before financing costs go up.
economy event ugly
The economy is one ugly event away from contraction.
kid market toy
The market is kind of like a four-year old kid in a toy store,
both growth inflation market numbers pressure reality sleep
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.