Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
following output past showing strong
This is a strong report: Manufacturing output has strengthened markedly in the past two months, following a lackluster showing in February.
beginning economy official
This is the first official acknowledgment that the economy is beginning to improve.
caution existing fear given home market pace reflection reluctant sales slightly strength
This is slightly baffling, given that existing home sales have been strengthening, ... It may be a reflection of caution on the part of builders, who have been reluctant to keep pace with sales because of fear the market strength will not last.
given guide latter national perfect rarely regional relative send strength
This is something of a surprise, given the relative strength of most of the regional surveys. The latter are not always a perfect guide to the national ISM but they rarely send such a clear, but wrong, signal.
core four months report straight
After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.
confidence consumers responses strength
Strength is broad-based, confirming that what consumers do can be very different to their responses to confidence surveys.
core deficit flat november past seems trend
November will be better, but the past year's flat trend in the core deficit seems to be breaking.
bottom decline firm line measure reverse
The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.
bottom content data durable information line orders report single small true volatility
The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.
bottom industry line
The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.
below dip follow philly question survey whether
The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,
auto fall far means next numbers sales unit
Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.
bad confidence despite dip fears further high hit job looks might month numbers
Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.
bad confidence despite dip fears further high hit job looks might month numbers
Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.