Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
dip ensure expect home housing low lower mortgage quarter rates rebound recession reflects renewed sales sector strength
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
claims data good indicator leading rate suggest
Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.
greater higher rates
the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.
february hike march rate risk
If February is broadly similar, a March 28 rate hike is assured. The May meeting's risk is rising.
building current data face higher home house housing impression market mortgage proving rate reinforce resilient sales support trend
In the short-term, these data will reinforce the impression that the housing market is proving resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates, ... it will not last, because the current trend in home sales is not high enough to support this rate of house building in the medium-term.
august chance increasing likely numbers rate seems seen
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
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The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
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As far as we can tell, just about everyone now expects another 25-basis-point hike on May 16, which rather begs the question why the Fed did not act more boldly today and raise rates by 50 basis points. By the time of the May meeting, a bigger move might be forced upon the FOMC.
fed gradually hike markets preparing process rate recent stance
Preparing the markets for a rate hike is a process in which the Fed gradually has to back away from its unduly pessimistic stance of recent months. This will take some time, but the process is now underway.
fed great helpful including next numbers raise rates
This is great news. These are very helpful numbers to those -- including us -- who think the Fed will not raise rates next month.
certainly cutting exciting fed guess impression market might rates slash soon thinking thinks three weeks
My guess is it won't be very exciting because he already told us three weeks ago what he thinks. He's certainly not going to say anything that suggests the Fed might be thinking about not cutting rates as soon as the market thinks but I don't think he'll want to give the impression that they're going to slash rates even more aggressively.
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This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
claims current expect percent rate remain
If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.