Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
next
As for the Fed, we look for 50 (basis points, a half-percentage point) next week.
call cycle declines economic expect normal quickly recession responding
If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.
call faith
If we had any faith in the reliability of these numbers, we'd have to call them disappointing, ... But we don't, so we won't.
beginning economy official
This is the first official acknowledgment that the economy is beginning to improve.
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
further inflation modest prevent
(The GDP and inflation data) won't prevent modest further easing,
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
consumer easing fears fed headlines mean meeting till wait
Clearly, these headlines will assuage some of the fears of a consumer collapse, and they mean the Fed will wait till the meeting before easing again. We still look for at least a 25-basis-point easing on Jan. 31.
begin change data fed force otherwise soon
The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous,
chance comfort consumer doubt looking mark markets next numbers slowing start temporary
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
excess falling hopeful inventory light orders output stronger
Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
budget chairman committee conditions house likely
The chairman will likely tell the House Budget Committee that conditions are set for recovery.
august basis ease easing good point seems
Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.