Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
consumers couple expect months rough
We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.
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We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
begins coast demand early elsewhere expect few gulf homes huge months next permits rise sign starts strengthen
Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.
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Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.
domestic expect final growth led quarter second sharp slow slowing solid
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
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There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
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We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
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The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
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The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.
currently displaced expect million payroll september time work
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.
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If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.
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We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.