Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
argue danger ready trend
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
data relief supports
We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story,
chance data few good home next sales seriously starts worst
We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
alone bit change good likely news room slow today
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
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The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
core few finished next prices slow strongly
This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,
biggest certainly convinced costs drop far fastest greenspan growth happens improvement labor matter numbers rates seven shouting unit worth
With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
companies consumers demand doom expect negative news notion scale truth
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
begun believed claims genuinely level peaked underlying
We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.
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The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
confirm cost data expected generating labor market percent pressures sort
The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.
remain soft spots survey
The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.