Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
collapse fed gathering housing wage
The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year.
greater higher rates
the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.
fed looking reason
This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
commentary conclusion death effect followed greatly housing market numbers possible rash rumors sales starts trend wrong
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
caution existing fear given home market pace reflection reluctant sales slightly strength
This is slightly baffling, given that existing home sales have been strengthening, ... It may be a reflection of caution on the part of builders, who have been reluctant to keep pace with sales because of fear the market strength will not last.
begins coast demand early elsewhere expect few gulf homes huge months next permits rise sign starts strengthen
Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.
blame clear congress cut fiscal greenspan light partly position problems turnaround
Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
april data due favorable four given housing level likely lowest months mortgage number previous sales shows signal since strong trend
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
activity again demand expect fourth highs home immediate mortgage permits reason response rose straight strength strong though
The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.
beginning cutting drop excuse fed given market oil prices stock time
The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.
bottom decline firm line measure reverse
The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.
consistent dip economic gas growth level line month next quite recent renewed spending spike wake watch
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
bottom industry line
The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.
february hike march rate risk
If February is broadly similar, a March 28 rate hike is assured. The May meeting's risk is rising.