Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
labor market
The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.
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The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
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At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
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At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
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A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,
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It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run.
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The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year.
fed gathering wage wonder
The wage story is gathering momentum. No wonder the Fed is concerned.
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The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.
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The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.
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The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.
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The chairman will likely tell the House Budget Committee that conditions are set for recovery.
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The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.
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The key question now is how quickly it recovers,