Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.
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We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
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We doubt this can be sustained as the reality of $2.60- plus sinks in. For now, though, it looks good.
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We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
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We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.
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We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.
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This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
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We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike,
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We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC.
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We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
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We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
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This testimony did not give the impression that he is in a great hurry to cut rates immediately.