Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
change clear news tone
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
october rebound signal since strong sustained
The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.
august chance good leaning september
There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.
looks remotely
There is nothing here that looks remotely inflationary,
statement suggest
There is nothing in the statement to suggest they're done.
claims consistent current falling flat labor level low numbers relief rising sight
Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
benefits claims extended filing flow hoped people pushing slow towards trend underlying
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
biggest certainly convinced costs drop far fastest greenspan growth happens improvement labor matter numbers rates seven shouting unit worth
With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
conditions consumer drop expect fully putting sentiment softer spending
We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
oil price prices reflects report rise shows stop worrying
The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
dips further good less line news state stock
The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
claims consistent disaster push rate
While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.