Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bad confidence despite dip fears further high hit job looks might month numbers
Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.
drop employment growth slowing strongly suggest trend
they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.
bad confidence despite dip fears further high hit job looks might month numbers
Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.
actual bit cannot continue current demand gains homes key mortgage number percent price rise sale sales supply year
The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.
hoped reasonably testimony upbeat
This is as upbeat a testimony as could reasonably have been hoped for.
clearly door explicit greenspan leave lower open risks time wants
Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
economy expect housing lead obvious patience sustained
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.
face
On the face of it these are very Fed-friendly numbers.
aircraft building consumer delivery due higher january lower mostly orders pulled reported revision
The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.
key question quickly
The key question now is how quickly it recovers,
depress higher interest loss people
If sharply higher interest rates, and a plunging Nasdaq make people more optimistic, we are at a loss to know what it will take to depress confidence,
fed gathering wage wonder
The wage story is gathering momentum. No wonder the Fed is concerned.
fed funds low percent rate seems start thinking
It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer.
cash people plenty spend
People have plenty of cash - and the inclination to spend it,