Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
activity fed housing increase meaningful mortgage serious signals until wait
A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
april data due favorable four given housing level likely lowest months mortgage number previous sales shows signal since strong trend
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
anywhere claims labor market near remain send signal strong
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
bears claims conditions continuing doubt expect highlight improving initial labor market payroll ratio report rise rising shaky signals soft
No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.
cannot good record sending signal survey track welcome
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
claims lower signal strong
For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.
abandon changed clear congress current economic fiscal greenspan interest level mind next signal situation sound testimony
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
cyclical element explosion intentions leaves market next none open recent risk wiser
His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
clearer easter havoc hope plays
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
dip ensure expect home housing low lower mortgage quarter rates rebound recession reflects renewed sales sector strength
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
coming great inflation labor prompt talk threat
Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
deficit easily key point
The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.