Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
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This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,
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At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
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The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
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Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.
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As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.
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Preparing the markets for a rate hike is a process in which the Fed gradually has to back away from its unduly pessimistic stance of recent months. This will take some time, but the process is now underway.
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This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.
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The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.
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Overall, the recent sales data appear to point to a renewed upturn in spending.
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He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
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A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
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At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.