Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
benefits claims extended filing flow hoped people pushing slow towards trend underlying
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
cash people plenty spend
People have plenty of cash - and the inclination to spend it,
claims department displaced helping labor officials people storm temporary though
Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.
borrow consumer money people pursue willing
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain,
depress higher interest loss people
If sharply higher interest rates, and a plunging Nasdaq make people more optimistic, we are at a loss to know what it will take to depress confidence,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
claims consistent disaster push rate
While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.
consumers couple expect months rough
We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.
depressed drop expect katrina pushed sentiment
We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
begins coast demand early elsewhere expect few gulf homes huge months next permits rise sign starts strengthen
Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
bad clearly pressure
Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.
gain november orders revision robust
Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.