Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
coming great inflation labor prompt talk threat
Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
labor market
The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.
claims data declines labor latest longer looks rising static three trend turn worst
Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
claims extremely labor market message numbers strong
The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
anywhere claims labor market near remain send signal strong
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
bears claims conditions continuing doubt expect highlight improving initial labor market payroll ratio report rise rising shaky signals soft
No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.
chief clear consumer fall fed labor leave rate rates signs worry
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
change claims consistent labor level low major simply
At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.
claims department displaced helping labor officials people storm temporary though
Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.
aloud available beginning bigger committee elevated forecast growth guard headline inflation labor neutral pool position rate remain shifting sign slower tight
This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
labor market progress
Overall, the labor market is improving, but progress is still slow,
chief clear consumer fall fed labor leave rate rates signs worry
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
confirm labor market moment numbers source
These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.