Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
gain november orders revision robust
Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.
buyers homes housing remains supply unable
Supply remains tight; buyers may have been unable to find the homes they want where they want them. Housing will not fold.
drive few last miracle notion numbers rest until
Clearly, these are disappointing numbers and should put to rest the notion that there a tech-driven miracle in U.S. productivity in the last few years, ... There was a boom, and booms drive up productivity -- until they bust.
accelerate companies numbers orders output pace running suggested
Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
argue bounce ease fed levels loose reason return skeptics thanks
Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need to ease again.
adjustment auto cope drop due impossible inability reflects simply underlying
It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,
claims data good indicator leading rate suggest
Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.
claims fell initial job losses wave
Claims fell because the initial wave of job losses after Sept. 11th is fading.
claims data declines labor latest longer looks rising static three trend turn worst
Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
claims trend true underlying
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.
april assertion core economy gas impossible last measure performance pitiful rose since square week worst
Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction,
claims extremely labor market message numbers strong
The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
likely looking sharp
It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.
coming core details economy extent faces goods inflation overall
The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.