Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
deficit hopeful rise sustained trade
If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,
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We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,
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He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
consumer decline given growth huge income seem slowing
Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.
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Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.
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We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
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This testimony did not give the impression that he is in a great hurry to cut rates immediately.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.
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Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.
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Expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were vulnerable to a correction; this is it.
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Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
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The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,