Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
building current data face higher home house housing impression market mortgage proving rate reinforce resilient sales support trend
In the short-term, these data will reinforce the impression that the housing market is proving resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates, ... it will not last, because the current trend in home sales is not high enough to support this rate of house building in the medium-term.
deficit hit likely numbers oil petroleum prices rise rose
The rise in oil prices was always likely to hit these numbers with a vengeance, and the petroleum deficit duly rose by $1.4 billion.
activity auto changes chicago conditions recent survey volatile
The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
august chance increasing likely numbers rate seems seen
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
auto awful held largely october rebound rose sales spending
Nominal spending was held down by a 0.4% energy-induced plunge in the PCE deflator, so real spending rose a hefty 0.7%. A rebound in auto sales after the awful October was largely responsible for this.
domestic expect final growth led quarter second sharp slow slowing solid
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
anywhere claims labor market near remain send signal strong
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
guess ignoring market moment moving numbers seem slow supporting
My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
claims dip measured moving prove rising turn unlikely
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.
greenspan ruled
Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
borrow consumer money people pursue willing
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain,
cards drop headline hugely retail
A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.
below dip follow philly question survey whether
The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,