Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
almost cash caused certainly core energy flow hit hugely leap rebound result sales strongly
Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.
consumer february pace percent rises since spending
If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,
chief clear consumer fall fed labor leave rate rates signs worry
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
mark soon start
This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.
cannot good record sending signal survey track welcome
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
ability accomplish affect damage drastic finances profoundly public reforms security social state
It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run.
core exports percent prevent widening year
Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.
evidence guaranteed recession though
It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,
confidence consumers responses strength
Strength is broad-based, confirming that what consumers do can be very different to their responses to confidence surveys.
likely worse
Things will likely get worse before they get better.
believes doubt economy rather turning view
There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed; he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,
consumer face hold lower question sales whether
Now the question is whether sales can hold up in the face of lower consumer confidence,
consumer decline given growth huge income seem slowing
Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.