Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
depressed drop expect katrina pushed sentiment
We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
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We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.
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This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
report waters
We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC.
chance data few good home next sales seriously starts worst
We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
argue danger ready trend
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
faces fed forward growth happen looking question wake
The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
currently displaced expect million payroll september time work
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.
accept activity aftermath fell housing immediate optimistic relatively remain
We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,
absent december degree depend february meetings moves pace policy potential reference specific suggesting
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,
certainly economy report serious slowing suggest
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.
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There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.