Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
cold consistent data downward drop fall fast housing month sales signs starts steep turn west wet whether
One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.
believes doubt economy rather turning view
There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed; he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,
fallen latter market question sales seems slowing summer trend weak
The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.
likely worse
Things will likely get worse before they get better.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
data fail inaction leaves november room statement
The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.
cannot good record sending signal survey track welcome
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
activity again demand expect fourth highs home immediate mortgage permits reason response rose straight strength strong though
The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.
fed gradually hike markets preparing process rate recent stance
Preparing the markets for a rate hike is a process in which the Fed gradually has to back away from its unduly pessimistic stance of recent months. This will take some time, but the process is now underway.
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
borrow consumer money people pursue willing
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain,
almost cash caused certainly core energy flow hit hugely leap rebound result sales strongly
Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.
core exports percent prevent widening year
Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.
commentary conclusion death effect followed greatly housing market numbers possible rash rumors sales starts trend wrong
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.