Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
august basis ease easing good point seems
Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
confirm labor market moment numbers source
These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.
deficit hit likely numbers oil petroleum prices rise rose
The rise in oil prices was always likely to hit these numbers with a vengeance, and the petroleum deficit duly rose by $1.4 billion.
cuts extent further interest lesser presumably prices rebound reflection rise stock though
The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
anecdotal blue evidence massive number survey
This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
report waters
We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC.
august bad data force greenspan rate willing
We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike,
attack came expressed fell market pearl percent resolve states stock united york
After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the New York stock market fell 5 percent over two days. As the United States mobilized and expressed its resolve in the ensuing days, the stock market came back.
both brief chain change either huge maybe mystery numbers pointed revised sales square store
The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change of course.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
april data due favorable four given housing level likely lowest months mortgage number previous sales shows signal since strong trend
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
further gain increase markets recent reflects requires
This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,