Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
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The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.
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(The GDP and inflation data) won't prevent modest further easing,
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The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.
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It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
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It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,
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The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,
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It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,
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It signals that the labor market has now moved again to center stage in the Fed's analysis and policymaking process.
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The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,
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The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices,
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The Fed is nearly done. The U.S. economy is coming back.
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The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.
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The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.