Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
deficit easily key point
The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.
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The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.
deficit next rebound trends underlying
The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.
claims trend true underlying
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.
awful far numbers
These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances.
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This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
clearly favorable low marks number shift
This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,
clearly despite dip housing market roll temporary
The housing market is clearly on a roll again, despite the -- probably temporary -- dip in confidence.
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The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
electricity factors gasoline good headline inflation natural news percent prices recent reflects rise stronger supports transitory view
The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.
aircraft apart data downward fell headline hit nearly official orders reported revision seems soft
The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.
clearly impact
The impact of the hurricanes is now clearly diminishing,
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The improvement in the stock market is allowing the hugely favorable monetary and fiscal environment to do its work -- just as it was in the spring before the stock market melted down,
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The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.