Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
consumer federal growth moderate reserve spending time warning
This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.
consumers economic fuel growth optimistic positive
Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they're not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.
cause consumer employment growth job shock shut situation spending
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
downward focusing growth initially markets revision seem
Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
absolutely couple growth months next
The next couple of months will be absolutely crucial. If we can get through this, we're going to have growth that will be consumer-led next year.
consumer factors fourth growth lifted looked mean months pace quarter six slower spending third weak
The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
add bias ease effort fed growing growth markets move policy rate somewhere sustain ways within
There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had. I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.
certainly create data domestic employment growth notion reinforce
The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.
dollar downward growth markets modestly negative retail revision sales weaker
On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.
job
I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.
causing excited markets near
In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.
bin dollar economy falling fits led risk tape view
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.