Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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The U.S. economy is simply stronger than that of most of our trading partners and modest currency movements have proven insufficient to remedy the balance.
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Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.
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Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
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There is sufficient upbeat news on the economy to convince the FOMC to tighten. If the economy warrants a rate hike, the Fed would be doing a great service by delivering.
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The economy has a lot of momentum. The consumer continues to do well because of the improving labor market, and businesses have a lot of cash and are getting more confident about deploying it.
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If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
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It is still far too soon to say how the economy will respond to Katrina, but so far, so good. Things are improving so far about as quickly as could be expected.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
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It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.