Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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Fed officials will remain watchful for a reacceleration in unit labor costs, especially with anecdotal evidence and an upturn in average hourly earnings growth suggesting that wage pressures may be picking up.
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The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
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Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.
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The report follows the recent pattern of strong growth and no inflation.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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The inventory change now suggests growth this quarter is likely to have a 3.0 handle on it rather than 4.0.
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The Fed is, if anything, more concerned about inflation than they are about a growth slowdown.
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If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
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It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.