Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.
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Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.
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One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990,
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Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.
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The crux of the statement was unchanged (from the last meeting), ... They said that policy remains accommodative, but that the central bank will respond to changes as needed. That's been the mantra since the tightening period began last June.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
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It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.
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Clearly, reports of the housing market's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
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In terms of monetary policy right now, most people expect the Fed to tighten during the next two or three meetings, but it's foggy beyond that. Greenspan didn't really say much to clarify, either in his comments or in the question period. He was appropriately non-committal, and so there's been little reaction from stocks.
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The idea that the Federal Reserve is close to being done with interest rate hikes has certainly benefited the bond market, and stocks have benefited as well.