Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.
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Today wasn't much of a day. There was a lot of positive news and the economic data was good, but the reaction was a very quiet, almost muted one. Tomorrow may be even quieter in terms of volume as we approach the end of this holiday-shortened week.
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What we've gotten, in terms of economic data and earnings, is no sense things are picking up ? they're (investors) afraid of another ledge to go over,
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Today we had some positive economic data and we came into the market oversold, ... I don't think we've fixed the oversold position -- I think we're still cheap. Tomorrow there will be some focus on factory orders and Cisco earnings.
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We spent the week worrying about yields and what the economic data would do. We managed to work our way through it. We finished off the week the best we could. Next week we have a host of economic data that may or may not change our mind. We'll see how it plays out.
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What Goldman is saying about Sun and EMC is IT (information technology) spending hasn't picked up that much, ... But we're more concerned about the economic recovery, so the data will probably play a larger role.
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My guess is we're going to have some positive action after last week's selling. We're in the last week of the month and the last week of a quarter, so there's some momentum there. If the stream of economic data is as positive as it's been, we're going to see some strength from that.
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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In terms of the thought process on the economy, today's ISM data on the services sector didn't help. It didn't really come as a surprise -- but, having said that, the broader thought process that the economy isn't doing well in the second half compared with the first half has investors concerned that we may need to test the lows of the market again.
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It's a lagging number that will have two revisions. There were no major surprises. Economic data will still move this market, but this isn't one of them.
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There's been a slew of positive data in between.
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I think the Fed's going to lower by 25 basis points and I think the trend is going to show stabilization and a pick-up in growth. The current data is not going to look terrific but there will be signs of stabilization.
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I think we got oversold, not on negative news, but on fear that we'd gotten ahead of ourselves and that things can't hold up in the fourth quarter,
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.