Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
bit both calling china deficit pointing policy poor pot reflects sides
The U.S. pointing to China is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The deficit with China reflects poor policy on both sides of the Pacific.
according almost appetite deficit dollar dramatic drop growth improve incredible major movements reason sustained trade weak
Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.
accident along deficit factor gradual gradually lingering risk sitting trade
That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
budgets capital cut demand dramatic point quite spending
Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.
chicago national number predictor terms
In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.
economy except fed future hike learned near policy rates ready
In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.
bias couple easy fed next terms
The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.
coming eventually housing impact seeds slow
Eventually that will slow down the U.S. consumer. We've got the seeds of a slowdown coming out of the housing market, but it hasn't really had that much impact yet on the economy.