Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
adds case cautious demanding generally higher investors returns risk taking view
It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.
cautious everybody line locked optimism risks
The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.
data dictate economy further gradual inflation markets risks step stop strong towards
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
bond chronic economic global market potent risk
There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
growth moderate risk year
It suggests moderate growth in the year ahead, but I don't think there's much risk of a 'double-dip' recession.
accident along deficit factor gradual gradually lingering risk sitting trade
That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
budgets capital cut demand dramatic point quite spending
Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.