Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
accept activity aftermath fell housing immediate optimistic relatively remain
We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,
business consumer market objective remain sentiment simply stock support until view
We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
albeit bound breach consumers current economy few level matter next numbers percent spending suggest view
With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.
currently displaced expect million payroll september time work
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.
certainly economy report serious slowing suggest
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.
absent december degree depend february meetings moves pace policy potential reference specific suggesting
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,
beginning four improvement labor markets numbers past though three
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
cut further maybe rates reads ready scared willing
This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
claims dip measured moving prove rising turn unlikely
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.
statement suggest
There is nothing in the statement to suggest they're done.
call pauses sales seen soon
We've seen pauses in sales before; (it's) too soon to call this a trend.