Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bit decline expect further hoped month next reason survey
Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.
bit quite
Overall, still quite strong, but a bit disconcerting nonetheless.
alone bit change good likely news room slow today
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
bit both cautious chairman clear fed knows means policy recovery steer views wants
There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,
bit risen vulnerable
Expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were vulnerable to a correction; this is it.
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
ahead bit confidence continue doubtful failure far further improvement likely negative progress recent rise run seems sharp stock weeks
As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.
bit chairman clearly dependent expects extent fed housing labor performance raise rates relative
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
actual bit cannot continue current demand gains homes key mortgage number percent price rise sale sales supply year
The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.
bit close details domestic final quarter second solid stronger though
The details are close to our expectations, though consumers' spending, up 5.5%, was a bit stronger than we expected. Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker.
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
claims consistent disaster push rate
While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.
consumers couple expect months rough
We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.
depressed drop expect katrina pushed sentiment
We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.