Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
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Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
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The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
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Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.
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The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
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The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
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Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
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Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
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Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,
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Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.
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Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.
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His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
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He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.