Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
claims data good indicator leading rate suggest
Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.
coming core details economy extent faces goods inflation overall
The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
august basis ease easing good point seems
Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
adjusted chance decline fully good industrial sector soon steep
It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.
consistent good indicator leading modest push spending stocks stronger
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
clothing decent declines gains general good holds holiday huge january leap overall percent provided rise season small suggest
The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.
cannot good record sending signal survey track welcome
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
bad change good last news overall trade worst
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
durable effect good report single
In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.
electricity factors gasoline good headline inflation natural news percent prices recent reflects rise stronger supports transitory view
The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.
alone clearly fed good inflation numbers rates rise rising spring stop view
Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.