Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
blame clear congress cut fiscal greenspan light partly position problems turnaround
Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
greenspan ruled
Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
abandon changed clear congress current economic fiscal greenspan interest level mind next signal situation sound testimony
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
clearly door explicit greenspan leave lower open risks time wants
Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
continue faster greenspan risks
Mr. Greenspan is set to continue the unloosening, the risks of which are 'outweighed' by the benefits, and he'll go faster if he has to,
comment fed future greenspan inflation rates recovery until wait
There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
cyclical element explosion intentions leaves market next none open recent risk wiser
His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
activity fed housing increase meaningful mortgage serious signals until wait
A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
clearer easter havoc hope plays
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
dip ensure expect home housing low lower mortgage quarter rates rebound recession reflects renewed sales sector strength
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
coming great inflation labor prompt talk threat
Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
deficit easily key point
The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.