Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
adding growth jump lift percent quarter second
This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.
consistent dip economic gas growth level line month next quite recent renewed spending spike wake watch
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
domestic expect final growth led quarter second sharp slow slowing solid
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
consumer decline given growth huge income seem slowing
Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.
aloud available beginning bigger committee elevated forecast growth guard headline inflation labor neutral pool position rate remain shifting sign slower tight
This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
assuming consistent fluke growth ignore percent report
Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.
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they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.
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His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
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A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
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The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
coming great inflation labor prompt talk threat
Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.