Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
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With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
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We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
cut further maybe rates reads ready scared willing
This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.
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This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
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His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
labor market
The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.
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This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,
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The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
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Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
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This is slightly baffling, given that existing home sales have been strengthening, ... It may be a reflection of caution on the part of builders, who have been reluctant to keep pace with sales because of fear the market strength will not last.
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The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.
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It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
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Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.