Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
beginning four improvement labor markets numbers past though three
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
business consumer market objective remain sentiment simply stock support until view
We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
cut further maybe rates reads ready scared willing
This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.
claims extremely labor market message numbers strong
The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
claims dip measured moving prove rising turn unlikely
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.
greenspan ruled
Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
borrow consumer money people pursue willing
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain,
cards drop headline hugely retail
A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.
below dip follow philly question survey whether
The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,
cited depressed distorted evidence extremely housing hugely industrial january market report retail sales strong surely warm weather
This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
claims downward effects full katrina likely next rise rita though trend week
Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear.
adjusted chance decline fully good industrial sector soon steep
It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.