Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
business consumer market objective remain sentiment simply stock support until view
We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
beginning four improvement labor markets numbers past though three
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
cut further maybe rates reads ready scared willing
This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.
aircraft apart data downward fell headline hit nearly official orders reported revision seems soft
The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
august basis ease easing good point seems
Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
august chance increasing likely numbers rate seems seen
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
guess ignoring market moment moving numbers seem slow supporting
My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
claims dip measured moving prove rising turn unlikely
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.
greenspan ruled
Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
borrow consumer money people pursue willing
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain,