Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
chance comfort consumer doubt looking mark markets next numbers slowing start temporary
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
domestic expect final growth led quarter second sharp slow slowing solid
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
consumer decline given growth huge income seem slowing
Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.
across argue awful evidence level months nearer sales slowing straight tells tempting weather
It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,
fallen latter market question sales seems slowing summer trend weak
The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.
absence again certain chance complete current economy evidence evident fed given meaningful pressure rates rise sensitive slowing
Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.
core damage ease economy fed inflation slowing succeeds
If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.
drop employment growth slowing strongly suggest trend
they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.
accept apparently caused claims data events exactly extra flow job losses second slowing straight
For the second straight week, jobless claims have substantially undershot the consensus, ... Analysts apparently do not want to accept that the flow of extra job losses caused by the events of Sept. 11 is slowing sharply, but that is exactly what the data indicate.
cyclical element explosion intentions leaves market next none open recent risk wiser
His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
activity fed housing increase meaningful mortgage serious signals until wait
A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
clearer easter havoc hope plays
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.