Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
consistent dip economic gas growth level line month next quite recent renewed spending spike wake watch
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
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Nominal spending was held down by a 0.4% energy-induced plunge in the PCE deflator, so real spending rose a hefty 0.7%. A rebound in auto sales after the awful October was largely responsible for this.
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It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
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Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
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If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,
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People have plenty of cash - and the inclination to spend it,
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His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
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He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
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A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
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At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
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The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
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Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
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The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.