Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
commentary conclusion death effect followed greatly housing market numbers possible rash rumors sales starts trend wrong
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
begins coast demand early elsewhere expect few gulf homes huge months next permits rise sign starts strengthen
Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.
dragging home housing mortgage sales slide starts view
Our view is that home sales will slide through the summer, dragging housing starts down into the fall. But this is still no more than a forecast; mortgage applications are still very strong.
cyclical element explosion intentions leaves market next none open recent risk wiser
His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
activity fed housing increase meaningful mortgage serious signals until wait
A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
clearer easter havoc hope plays
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
dip ensure expect home housing low lower mortgage quarter rates rebound recession reflects renewed sales sector strength
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
coming great inflation labor prompt talk threat
Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
deficit easily key point
The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.
deficit next rebound trends underlying
The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.
labor market
The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.