Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
claims extremely labor market message numbers strong
The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
april data due favorable four given housing level likely lowest months mortgage number previous sales shows signal since strong trend
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
activity again demand expect fourth highs home immediate mortgage permits reason response rose straight strength strong though
The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.
excess falling hopeful inventory light orders output stronger
Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
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If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
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This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
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Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
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Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.
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This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.
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This is a strong report: Manufacturing output has strengthened markedly in the past two months, following a lackluster showing in February.
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The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
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For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.
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The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.
corporate domestic gross implies percent product recovery strong survey
A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,