Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
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If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.
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When we started the year, the markets were reticent to buy into either a strong U.S. economy or the Fed raising rates to 5 percent. What has changed is the market's very stubborn resistance to accepting the fact that the dollar has a pretty high carry compared to the rest of the world.
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The weaker-than-expected housing number still leaves housing at a fairly high level of activity but will raise some eyebrows as markets worry about the (Federal Reserve) overshooting (with rate hikes).
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The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don't think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we've seen... is the dollar moving on the back of the bond market. The 10-year rose to a new cyclical high again.
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Everybody knows they (investors) want to buy high yielding currencies and the yen still seems like the best currency to sell to fund that.
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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
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I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
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It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
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Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
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It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.
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We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.