Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
across auto based flat gone growth headline mainly november number positive sales seeing spending true
We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.
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Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they're not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.
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Almost always the knee-jerk reaction in the markets to positive news on reforms is yen positive. People look at reform as being a positive thing for Japan, one day, hopefully.
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There really has not been justification for the dollar rally to happen exclusively versus the euro, especially because euro zone data has been kind of positive and Japanese data has kind of languished in a funk.
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The detail looks pretty solid, with new orders up, employment up. The dollar should react positively to this.
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The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don't think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we've seen... is the dollar moving on the back of the bond market. The 10-year rose to a new cyclical high again.
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This was a pretty positive number, with solid increases in output of business equipment and consumer goods.
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I firmly believe consumer spending will stay in positive territory, but I think we will see further signs of consumer fatigue as the year progresses.
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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
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I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
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It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
downward focusing growth initially markets revision seem
Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.