Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
cuts exactly fed help hitting makers market point policy putting rate short whatever yield
The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological.
continue favorable fed match raising rates scope support tends terms yield
I don't see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if they hike, the yield differentials are still favorable to the dollar.
afford cut downside fed market markets pricing rate surprise
Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
absorb economy effects fed hike national people rate seem seems strong
Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.
add bias ease effort fed growing growth markets move policy rate somewhere sustain ways within
There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had. I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.
hear interest market rates stock talk
Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package,
activity eyebrows fairly high housing leaves level markets number raise rate worry
The weaker-than-expected housing number still leaves housing at a fairly high level of activity but will raise some eyebrows as markets worry about the (Federal Reserve) overshooting (with rate hikes).
actual continues domestic drawing economics economy-and-economics everybody fed final forecast hard learn market minus rate solid
Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.
concerned cut economy fed fine might pain rates remains shock
This is not a 'ripping off the Band-Aid' kind of situation, where you know how much the pain will be and that you'll be fine afterwards. We don't know how well the economy has healed. The Fed remains very concerned ... that they might overshoot and give the economy such a shock they'll have to cut rates again.
connect current data dots fed good markets quick rate straight
The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike,
higher housing last market rates situation worried
If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.
job
I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.
causing excited markets near
In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.
bin dollar economy falling fits led risk tape view
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.