Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
attract boils capital crash difficult dollar factor fed global help interest loosen policy puts sentiment support
If protectionist sentiment boils over, that could be a precipitating factor for the dollar. In a dollar crash scenario, it puts the Fed in a particularly difficult spot. Do they tighten policy (raise interest rates) to attract global capital or do they loosen it to help support the economy?
difficult economic given inflation
Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
difficult
It may very difficult for them to tighten
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.
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If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.
impact pricing starting
The impact on pricing is starting to fade.
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And you know at these kind of prices, there's lots of money to be made. So I'm sure they're gonna work triple overtime to get their facilities up and running again.
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The Fed is growing more uncomfortable about inflation, ... This is a more hawkish statement and signals that more tightening is on the way.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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All these statistics reflect the full force of the hurricanes on the broader economy and we will probably have another month of ugly statistics.