Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
difficult few pace rate seems slowing technical
The rate of technical change, which is the most difficult thing to measure, seems to be slowing from the unprecedented pace of a few years ago.
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Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,
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Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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If protectionist sentiment boils over, that could be a precipitating factor for the dollar. In a dollar crash scenario, it puts the Fed in a particularly difficult spot. Do they tighten policy (raise interest rates) to attract global capital or do they loosen it to help support the economy?
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It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
difficult
It may very difficult for them to tighten
choice consumers difficult economy economy-and-economics filling gas gasoline hard hardest hit home oil spending stretched tank
The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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The economy is strong, and if history is a guide it should suggest inflationary pressures should develop, but they haven't. Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.