Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
backwards energy given higher increase inflation last medical near prices recent represents
Given the recent surge in energy prices and higher medical costs, many will not be made whole by the increase. The increase is backwards looking; it represents inflation over the last year. In the near term, inflation will be greater.
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if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
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Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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The economy is strong, and if history is a guide it should suggest inflationary pressures should develop, but they haven't. Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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We don't get away scot-free, but the underlying economy remains tough and sturdy.
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You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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I thought oil would have been a concern since it hit $40 but the economy has digested it well,
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I think they're going to stick to their script, that they're going to continue to tighten at each meeting.