Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
fed growing signals statement
The Fed is growing more uncomfortable about inflation, ... This is a more hawkish statement and signals that more tightening is on the way.
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The job market is getting tight enough that employees will regain some negotiating power and some modest improvement in wage growth next year.
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I suspect this is a pause and we still see a resumption of top line growth and, ultimately, better hiring in tech.
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As the memory of the tech bust fades, we seem to be getting better and better job growth.
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The largest source that drove the very strong growth over the last year was this powerful replacement cycle, which is fading, ... The need to replace inventory is over.
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The impact is going to be very significant -- it may shave as much as a half-percentage point from economic growth this year.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
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It undermines growth at the same time that it fans inflation.
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
absence assume default growth job layer second
In the absence of a second layer of information, we all assume the job growth is from hiring. It is our default position.
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It's better than it was but it's not as good as anywhere else. There are growing pockets of strength. Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis -- these are economies that had been severely depressed a few years ago and are now making their way back.
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Productivity growth is slowing and it is not strong enough to forestall rising labor costs and broader inflation.
companies earnings environment growth harder investors produce profits slower solid valuing
Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth. As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by.