Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
almost barack clearest current cut drag extend fiscal increase payroll proposed
The clearest way to cut some of this fiscal drag would be to extend the current payroll tax holiday and increase it - as proposed by President Barack Obama. This would cut the fiscal drag by almost half.
asking bigger decidedly favor increases pay pendulum swung workers
Workers are asking for bigger pay increases and they are getting them. The pendulum has swung decidedly in favor of workers.
aggressive buy cars consumers offered pay
This is a pay back for the aggressive discounts consumers were offered to buy cars during the summer.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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At best, people should prepare for no pay increase and no bonus, something they have been getting a lot of. At worst, they should be thinking they may need to change occupations.
holiday payroll-tax numbers
The extension and expansion of the payroll tax holidays for workers would be number one on my list and key to avoiding recession.
giving stressed pay
In a forbearance, the homeowner pays interest and principal on a smaller mortgage, at least for a time, but still owes the full amount. The lower monthly payment helps with affordability, giving stressed homeowners a break.
bigger demanding increases labor pay start
Labor will start demanding bigger pay increases and will get them.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
decision higher level regarding since year
I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
economy remains tough underlying
We don't get away scot-free, but the underlying economy remains tough and sturdy.